SOUTHERN STORM? A BUSIER MORE COMPLEX PERIOD COMING UP.
A QUICK RUN DOWN OVER THE NEXT WEEK.
– Our summary below is still valid for next week but we have seen changes to Friday night and Saturday with more rain and lower level snow. Source our town pages and current information for all the latest. 4:40pm Wednesday evening.
There has been some interest in the media around a ‘Southern Storm’ next week. There is an element of truth to this, but here in Canterbury we may just dodge the bullet.
Currently early next week looks very cold in Southland & Otago with a very cold south-westerly air-flow and associated showers and snow about the hills. There is even some indication that snow may lower to around 200m with sleety falls to sea-level. Care will be required sourcing content and attention to detail around worst hit areas.
There remains conflict in models this morning with (GFS) showing a more direct southerly airflow and snow to low levels in Canterbury while our (ECMWF) Euro models show a more southwesterly wind flow – almost westerly.
Here in Canterbury we’ll ‘side’ with the Euro model this morning and perhaps escape the wintry showers and lower level snow early next week on currently analysis, but a slight change in wind direction to a more directly southerly could significantly enhance precipitation odds in the form of snow to very low levels.
There is a higher risk of snow during middle stages of next week, as our southern low slowly moves east, it may just ‘fire’ up a surge of more direct southerlies and snow to very low levels. Town pages may start to cater for this period of weather tomorrow.
What’s the go currently? Our westerly flow and associated fine weather will come to an end late Friday as a large area of low pressure moves onto New Zealand ‘feeding’ in a period of easterly rain across most of Canterbury; possibly heavy in more southern and central parts of the region closer to the foothills on Saturday.
While this ‘pool’ of air isn’t overly cold it will fall as snow about the higher hills and ranges with more snow likely for local ski areas; possibly more significant about Mt Dobson and perhaps even Mt Hutt depending on the exact ‘feed’ location.
In the meantime, get out and make the most of this fantastic weather. Sunny and settled conditions will dominate our weather over the next few days and you’ll notice an almost spring feel with temperature pushing into the mid-teens this afternoon & Thursday.
Keep up to date with our ‘Live Weather Feed’ and town pages for specific details as we move closer to this unsettled and complex period of weather.
Low pressure anomaly early next week. Notice the red over Australia? High pressure and frosty conditions towards the end of next week. Source. ECMWF.
GFS showing a more direct southerly airflow, rain and snow for Canterbury early next week. Low risk currently. Source. GFS.
Cloudy Hill. Credit: Francis Vallance.
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