‘THE ROUND UP’ – OUR WEEKLY IN DEPTH LOOK AT WEATHER HERE IN CANTERBURY
‘THE ROUND UP’ is a regular edition issued each week for CWU members.
SPRING LIKE CONDITIONS DOMINATE EARLY & MIDDLE STAGES OF AUGUST
Issued Sunday evening @ 17:45 on 07/08/2017
We have come to the end of our first week of August, and overall we have seen a vast improvement on what was a very cold and wet July. It has been a lot drier, sunnier and more settled overall this week. Some extreme frost activity has occurred about the Mackenzie Country, but some fantastic drying out has occurred across the Canterbury Plains and Coastal areas especially over the weekend.
UPCOMING WEEK OF WEATHER – WHAT’S IN STORE?
Milder NW conditions will dominate next week, bringing above average temperatures and mostly dry conditions out east. Closer to the Main Divide we expect heavy rain & snow above 1400m, especially on Tuesday & Wednesday. We do have a brief SW change and cooler conditions set for Thursday, but overall it’s more of the same – fine weather, out east. Next weekend almost looks a replica to this weekend with rain west of the Divide and sunny and mild conditions out east. In many ways, we’re moving into spring like weather 4-5 weeks early.
While a change in weather patterns has occurred early in 2017, this doesn’t mean heavy snow and low snow isn’t possible, with colder fronts possible right through September & even into October; we may even see some colder weather towards the end of August. Perhaps a sign for all you skiers to get out there over the next 10 days and enjoy the fantastic snow bases, all our local fields are currently enjoyable.
MONDAY 7th AUGUST: Max: 16-19 Low: 6-9
Mainly fine weather through the day with just some thin, variable high cloud about during the day. Light northerly breezes about the coast with north to northwesterlies inland. Occasional rain & showers about the divide during the day. Very mild conditions for the time of year. There is some potential for isolated areas to nudge 20 degrees, given enough clear overhead conditions. Enjoy the ‘spring like’ conditions.
TUESDAY 8th AUGUST: Max: 15-17 Low: 5-7
Long fine spells through the morning with high cloud about and northerlies, stronger northwest at times inland. A spell of afternoon rain moves in and spreads east across the Plains and likely briefly reaching the coast. Conditions will then clear. Above average temperatures for the time of year. Heavy rain about the divide, isolated torrential falls, with thunder and heavy snow above 1600m.
WEDNESDAY 9th AUGUST: Max: 15-17 Low: 4-6
Fine spells through the day, extensive high cloud about at times with some scattered brief patchy rain about at times. Northerlies freshening about the coast, light northerly about inland areas. Mild conditions prevail over the region.
THURSDAY 10th AUGUST: Max: 8-10 Low: 1-3
A Cooler SW airflow across the region, with some showers. Low risk of hail and light snow above 900-1000m about the High Country. Light frosts possible about sheltered inland areas overnight.
FRIDAY 11th AUGUST: Max: 11-13 Low: 0-2
A possible early shower close up against the coast, more so Banks Peninsula and the Kaikoura Coast. A mainly fine day to be enjoyed across the region with a light southerly airflow tending northerly later in the day and becoming milder. This will eliminate frosts at night. Northwest rising about the High Country at night.
SATURDAY 12TH AUGUST: Max: 14-16 Low: 4-6
A mainly fine day with some high cloud increasing through the day. Mild northerly breezes developing about the coast and strong northwesterlies about inland areas may rise to gale in the evening. Above average temperatures for the time of year. Spells of heavy rain about the main divide.
SUNDAY 13th AUGUST: Max: 15-17 Low: 3-5
High cloud often extensive through the day with heavy rain and severe gales possible about the main divide. Strong northwest conditions over the Canterbury Plains and likely spreading to the coast at times. Chance of some brief spill-over showers spreading out east. Mild conditions prevail. We’ve seen a few signs of colder SW winds and showers for Sunday evening – in the last 12 hours, but need a bit more consistency, something to keep an eye on.
WARMEST WEATHER: Monday over much of the Canterbury Plains and Coast. Most areas will push into the high teens & possibly 20 degrees in some areas.
WINDIEST WEATHER: Middle stages of the week about the High Country – NW gales. We may see strong winds across the Canterbury Plains on Tuesday afternoon & through early stages of Wednesday.
COLDEST WEATHER: We expect the entire week to be mild and above average temps. The coldest day will be Thursday, with cooler SW winds and a few scattered showers. Light snow above 900-1000m.
WETTEST PERIOD OF WEATHER: Main Divide on Tuesday & Wednesday. A CWU Rain ‘Warning’ is in place. Across the Canterbury Plains and coast, we may see a few spill over showers at various stages, but nothing of note. More convectional showers, with colder southerlies are due on Thursday.
TOWN OF THE WEEK: Kaikoura – sheltered from the spill over rain and strong NW winds next week – for most part. Mid to high teens, just a cooler day on Thursday, with a few showers & southerlies to contend with.
LONGER RANGE FORECAST
Our longer range data is suggesting a potential brief cold spell to start the following week with some lower level snow possible around the 14th/15th August, however this looks short lived with northwesterlies moving back in to continue to the warmer than average trend for the month. Rainfall is looking rather minimal over the next couple of weeks, with just some brief spill-over showers. Some good drying out conditions, as many areas look to dry out after July. Sure signs that we are past the shortest day of the year and that spring is on the way. Having said that, this does not mean there will be no more cold outbreaks in the mix. The end of August may see a slightly more favourable pattern for snowy conditions based on some long range data.
** The latest ‘Round Up’ will be available for all members on Sunday 13th August at 7:30pm **
Weather Analyst: Leighton Thomas & Russell Voice