It’s hotly contest – various professional weather organisations across all media forums having their say and ‘dig’ and say on what to expect over the all-important Christmas period.

As we all know weather here in New Zealand, especially in Canterbury can be notoriously difficult even on the day – so the question is; how much should we really listen and take from early predictions about Christmas Day?

The reality is long term forecasts can actually be a little more straight forward. We can look for consistency over a period of time and look at trends in data and models and observe the bigger picture and potential systems in play.

 To highlight this an area of high pressure has been lining up our Christmas Period for over 2 weeks; this has remained consistent, despite constant little changes in over the next few days weather.

As professional weather forecaster we use a range of maps models, data and most importantly local knowledge to generate out content. When you’re focusing on one region you can nail down and become more focused and detailed on those specific and all important details.

 We’re all looking at similar maps, data and models; what sometimes differs is the intensity and detail of coverage between various organisations. Often, we’re actually on the same ‘wave’. The half of December has played out to our monthly outlook for December and we expect this to continue for the second half of December.

 So, what can we expect? Our weather will settle down and become warmer, with quality sunshine hours next week but as we draw closer to the Christmas Period there is the potential for more activity in the Tasman and  a cooler SW airflow. The good news is this period looks to calm down as we draw closer to Christmas Eve.

🌡 At this stage and it’s shown remarkable consistency for 2 weeks a ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather over Canterbury on Christmas Day – the end result on current analysis? Sunny skies, light winds mild conditions, slightly warmer into the afternoon about Inland Canterbury. Temperatures in the early twenties, possible mid-twenties for parts of Inland Canterbury.

💧Possible spoilers – A low from the Tasman may ‘feed’ in rain from the north. At this stage risk is low, higher risk of rain about the Main Divide and West Coast of the South Island. We may see afternoon convective ‘heat showers’ about inland areas and perhaps a weak SW front may clip Coastal Canterbury – this is now considered low risk also.

Please note – we may see slight changes; keep up to date with our ‘Live Weather Feed’ for constant updates and all the very latest information. Town pages will cover this with specific details from the 19th of December.

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